Democrats have been eyeing the 2018 elections from the moment that it was announced that Donald Trump had won the 2016 election. It was such a shocking and unexpected victory that many were taken aback. Then, many were angered and ready to fight for a change in leadership in 2018. This is why many wonder right now what the odds are for Democrats making a significant change in their representation in the federal government.
Enormous Lead In Generic Polls
There is something to say for generic congressional polling. It is not perfectly accurate at predicting the results of an election, but it does help to indicate which way things are likely to go. In other words, it is not a crystal ball, but it is not something to be completely ignored either.
Democrats can take heart in their lead in the generic Congressional ballot at the moment. Their lead as indicated by CNN is currently at 56% to 38% for Republicans (as of December 20th, 2017).
This is the kind of lead that is not often seen in these types of polls. Before the Democrats won their last big Congressional victory in 2006, they had a lead of 50% to 43% in a poll taken at virtually the same amount of time outside of the election. That was a year in which Democrats took control of the House and the Senate. Could the same be in store for 2018?
Reasons To Take Caution
There are a lot of reasons for Democrats to be happy with their position going into 2018. That being said, it is far from a guarantee that they will reach their goals of taking back the House and Senate. As a matter of fact, taking control of the Senate will be an enormous uphill battle for them.
Democrats have to defend a lot more seats in the Senate than do Republicans. At the same time, the economy is holding up pretty well, and there is always the potential for wild card event to happen such as a new war or something of that nature. The bottom line is that while these polls are encouraging to many Democrats, they are a long way from being able to say that they are going to be able to sweep to victory. There are still far too many unknowns for a prediction like that to be anything but wishful thinking.